Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  18.1  14.1  13.5  14.4  16.5  22.1  23.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  15.0  17.0  22.0  22.0  18.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7  99.4 101.5  97.4  93.5  93.5  84.4  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  42.0  47.0  24.0  28.0   2.0  25.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   1.0  -4.0   0.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.2%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       14.9%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        7.7%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        6.9%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        6.9%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       16.3%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        6.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h       17.5%        4.4%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        4.0%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        4.2%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 WP122025 250730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  18.1  14.1  13.5  14.4  16.5  22.1  23.7  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   1.0  -4.0   0.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%