Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250731 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.00 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.7 14.1 16.1 13.8 18.1 17.8 28.0 37.5 N F F F F F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 15.0 17.0 21.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.5 92.4 90.5 90.5 69.6 44.8 37.8 17.8 N N N N U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 13.0 24.0 39.0 -11.0 28.0 4.0 62.0 N U U N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 49.0 52.0 53.0 56.0 63.0 69.0 71.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 -5.0 -14.0 -13.0 -9.0 N N N N F VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.4% 3.5% 5.0% 25kt / 24h 5.4% 12.1% 8.7% 30kt / 24h 5.2% 5.9% 5.5% 35kt / 24h 2.8% 5.9% 4.4% 40kt / 24h 2.5% 5.9% 4.2% 45kt / 36h 4.2% 10.1% 7.1% 55kt / 36h 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 55kt / 48h 16.6% 0.9% 8.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 WP122025 250731 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.00 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.