Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250731 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 142.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.5 13.9 14.6 10.4 20.9 28.6 34.3 33.1 F F F F N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 21.0 17.0 16.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.5 86.2 86.2 74.6 50.9 44.7 22.8 21.7 N N N U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 11.0 1.0 18.0 37.0 56.0 19.0 22.0 U U U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 60.0 64.0 69.0 69.0 64.0 56.0 U U N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -1.0 -6.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -9.0 -7.0 N N F N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 5.0% 2.9% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 2.5% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.8% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 4.5% 2.5% 55kt / 36h 0.6% 1.5% 1.1% 55kt / 48h 9.5% 0.3% 4.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.88 WP122025 250731 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 142.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.