Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.50    141.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  19.3  19.1  17.8  18.5  33.0  46.8  61.0  F  N  N  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  18.0  18.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  64.6  53.0  53.0  33.7  14.0  -6.4 -10.2  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -18.0  13.0  65.0  52.0  81.0  28.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  66.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  66.0  58.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -18.0  -3.0   2.0   5.0  11.0  24.0  70.0  F VF  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        3.2%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        4.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.2%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        1.7%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.18

 WP122025 250801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.50    141.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.