Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.6  18.6  22.9  24.9  44.8  47.1  53.6  F  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  16.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.6  51.7  42.0  31.8  13.4   3.5  -7.5  -8.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0  12.0  65.0  66.0  77.0  67.0  41.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  60.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  53.0  47.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0  -3.0   0.0  16.0  13.0  40.0  49.0  42.0 VF  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        1.8%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.20

 WP122025 250801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.70    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.