Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.7  23.0  19.5  28.4  38.6  44.9  49.4  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.7  34.8  40.5  28.7   9.0  -3.7 -10.3 -12.8  U VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  65.0  68.0  52.0  82.0  33.0  57.0 -29.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   2.0  15.0   4.0  11.0  29.0  43.0  27.0  N  N  U  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.76

 WP122025 250801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.