Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250802 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 144.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 34.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.6 19.9 25.9 31.6 35.4 41.3 42.1 37.9 N N N U U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 24.2 14.0 14.0 4.7 0.3 -4.9 -4.2 -3.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 53.0 55.0 50.0 40.0 -11.0 -12.0 -5.0 U N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 66.0 63.0 60.0 56.0 50.0 46.0 47.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 10.0 14.0 22.0 44.0 48.0 30.0 26.0 VU U U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.42 WP122025 250802 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 144.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.