Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.30    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  25.7  29.7  33.1  36.9  45.2  47.0  41.7  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.2  14.0   4.7   1.6  -5.1  -4.2  -3.2  -5.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  59.0  34.0  30.0  36.0 -43.0 -13.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  50.0  42.0  48.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  14.0  19.0  20.0  34.0  37.0  16.0 -23.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 20.68

 WP122025 250802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.30    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.