Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.00    147.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  34.6  37.4  36.2  38.9  38.4  39.0  42.5  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.0   4.7   1.6   0.3  -4.7  -4.4  -5.8  -7.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  26.0  34.0  25.0  16.0   1.0 -11.0  11.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  54.0  46.0  51.0  56.0  59.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  26.0  11.0  23.0  19.0  18.0  22.0  12.0  U VU  U VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 19.46

 WP122025 250802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.00    147.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.