Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.50    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  32.0  42.1  50.3  49.8  52.8  49.6  39.2  N  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          2.1   0.6  -2.8  -2.7  -3.8  -4.9  -6.5  -7.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  14.0  33.0   7.0  46.0  12.0  57.0  50.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  49.0  53.0  61.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.0  47.0  38.0  56.0  30.0  23.0 -33.0  -1.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 16.22

 WP122025 250803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.50    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.