Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250803 12UTC Storm Located at : 41.20 157.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 44.0 51.5 53.5 51.6 48.2 49.2 19.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 0.6 -2.8 -2.7 -4.5 -5.0 -5.6 -7.6 -8.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 33.0 7.0 39.0 27.0 5.0 83.0 55.0 U N U N U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 47.0 45.0 42.0 44.0 52.0 61.0 72.0 U VU VU VU VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 47.0 36.0 57.0 55.0 27.0 -27.0 -18.0 -3.0 VU VU VU VU VU VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 15.10 WP122025 250803 12UTC Storm Located at : 41.20 157.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.