Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250804 06UTC Storm Located at : 43.40 166.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 145.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.8 47.4 48.2 54.3 59.7 56.6 42.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 10.9 11.7 10.1 10.4 9.5 7.9 7.8 7.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 45.0 25.0 2.0 57.0 71.0 25.0 25.0 N N U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 46.0 47.0 50.0 58.0 63.0 64.0 64.0 VU VU VU U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 34.0 25.0 23.0 15.0 -3.0 3.0 -35.0 -35.0 VU VU VU U N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 13.50 WP122025 250804 06UTC Storm Located at : 43.40 166.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.