Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132025 250802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30    136.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  10.0   9.9  11.3  15.1  14.3  12.9  15.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.3 125.7 123.6 108.0 101.0  84.4  77.9  73.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  21.0  12.0  14.0  -3.0  -2.0  -9.0 -18.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  45.0  45.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0 -10.0 -11.0   3.0   0.0  -6.0   5.0   3.0  N  F  F  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       17.7%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        7.4%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        6.2%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.2%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       26.9%       14.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%       12.5%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       28.8%       15.6%       22.2%
 70kt / 48h       15.6%        7.3%       11.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        6.6%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 WP132025 250802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30    136.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  10.0   9.9  11.3  15.1  14.3  12.9  15.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  45.0  45.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0 -10.0 -11.0   3.0   0.0  -6.0   5.0   3.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%