Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132025 250802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.2  19.2  22.6  19.6  18.4  19.2  18.1  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  19.0  12.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 120.7 112.4 104.8  82.2  76.7  68.2  64.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0 -20.0 -10.0  20.0 -24.0  -7.0  -1.0 -34.0  U VU  U  U VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  48.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -2.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        7.3%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        8.9%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%        3.6%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        1.5%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 WP132025 250802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.2  19.2  22.6  19.6  18.4  19.2  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  48.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -2.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%