Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132025 250802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  13.2  11.4  14.3  11.8  16.5  19.5  24.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  12.0   9.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4  99.8  91.0  77.2  62.0  55.7  43.4  32.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -1.0  -8.0   6.0  -4.0 -15.0 -15.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  50.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -3.0  -6.0  -2.0  -5.0   4.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.2%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        8.8%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        3.7%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.8%        0.4%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.82

 WP132025 250802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.