Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132025 250803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40    143.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  12.8  12.5  12.7  18.1  20.3  23.3  43.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  69.2  64.3  52.8  47.4  44.2  25.9  15.3  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  -8.0   5.0  -7.0  -1.0 -35.0  -5.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  49.0  45.0  45.0  47.0  52.0  56.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   5.0  -7.0   3.0  -2.0   4.0  41.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.10

 WP132025 250803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40    143.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.