Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132025 250803 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.80 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.40 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.1 12.6 12.5 15.3 19.0 22.4 30.6 49.3 F F F F N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.2 54.7 52.8 48.3 45.8 35.2 19.3 12.2 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 6.0 -7.0 -49.0 -33.0 9.0 1.0 -27.0 U U U VU VU U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 42.0 40.0 40.0 42.0 45.0 53.0 62.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 6.0 -8.0 -6.0 -6.0 12.0 12.0 49.0 N N F F F U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.22 WP132025 250803 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.80 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.