Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132025 250803 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.70 147.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 14.6 18.6 17.5 22.8 24.6 34.2 47.2 F F N F N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.7 52.8 48.3 47.4 35.8 25.9 15.1 12.5 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 -10.0 -36.0 -16.0 -19.0 0.0 -17.0 -7.0 U U VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 42.0 42.0 43.0 43.0 49.0 54.0 61.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -10.0 -8.0 -1.0 -4.0 7.0 22.0 27.0 N F F N F N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.62 WP132025 250803 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.70 147.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.