Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132025 250804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  18.5  20.1  19.2  21.7  28.2  44.9  48.8  F  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.7  50.0  48.3  37.1  35.8  20.0  12.3  10.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0 -48.0 -13.0 -17.0  -3.0   1.0 -25.0   8.0  U VU  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  42.0  44.0  44.0  43.0  53.0  60.0  62.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0   1.0  -2.0   9.0  14.0  37.0  40.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.02

 WP132025 250804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.