Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132025 250804 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.40 151.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 19.4 20.3 21.8 22.2 34.0 48.1 56.2 F N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.0 53.3 42.1 41.4 25.0 20.3 15.4 14.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -34.0 -16.0 4.0 -17.0 1.0 -5.0 14.0 11.0 VU U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 45.0 45.0 43.0 49.0 55.0 64.0 64.0 VU VU VU VU U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 4.0 -4.0 -6.0 9.0 36.0 26.0 32.0 F N F F U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.54 WP132025 250804 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.40 151.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.