Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132025 250804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.50    153.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  20.8  22.4  25.3  24.9  45.0  56.3  58.5  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.3  42.1  41.4  31.8  20.3  17.5  14.2  15.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0   4.0 -17.0 -10.0   6.0 -18.0  28.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  43.0  46.0  52.0  60.0  62.0  60.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -4.0  -6.0   7.0   8.0  36.0  24.0   4.0  N  F  F  N  U VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.74

 WP132025 250804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.50    153.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.