Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132025 250805 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.70 160.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.4 37.4 42.6 41.6 52.0 53.0 42.4 44.1 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 30.0 25.8 22.7 20.8 21.8 20.6 18.9 17.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 10.0 0.0 5.0 14.0 25.0 32.0 80.0 U U U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 55.0 58.0 66.0 68.0 72.0 67.0 66.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 40.0 27.0 39.0 33.0 27.0 -18.0 -43.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.44 WP132025 250805 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.70 160.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.