Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132025 250806 00UTC Storm Located at : 40.20 162.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.5 41.5 40.6 46.1 52.6 45.1 38.9 50.5 U VU U VU VU VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 26.1 26.5 23.4 21.4 22.7 21.1 18.6 18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 15.0 56.0 40.0 51.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 57.0 63.0 64.0 62.0 57.0 57.0 54.0 U U N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 36.0 28.0 33.0 42.0 22.0 2.0 -35.0 -39.0 VU VU VU VU VU N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.02 WP132025 250806 00UTC Storm Located at : 40.20 162.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.