Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132025 250806 12UTC Storm Located at : 42.90 166.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 150.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.8 40.9 50.2 47.3 32.4 26.7 38.9 44.5 U VU VU VU U N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 21.1 20.0 20.2 20.6 19.7 18.7 18.0 18.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 0.0 4.0 -13.0 10.0 39.0 50.0 28.0 U U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 63.0 65.0 61.0 62.0 59.0 52.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 28.0 17.0 -7.0 -20.0 -39.0 -24.0 -25.0 VU VU U F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 13.70 WP132025 250806 12UTC Storm Located at : 42.90 166.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.