Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142025 250804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    163.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  32.2  35.4  36.1  42.6  34.4  34.4  34.4  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  15.0  13.0   8.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 109.8  93.0  93.0  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0   0.0  14.0   3.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 WP142025 250804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    163.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  32.2  35.4  36.1  42.6  34.4  34.4  34.4  N  N  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%