Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142025 250804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    161.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  28.8  28.7  34.8  41.3  40.8  37.9  40.5  N  N  N  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  16.0  15.0  13.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 125.7 125.7 134.6 127.9 109.8  91.5  76.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -1.0  59.0  46.0  17.0  21.0  26.0  37.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 WP142025 250804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    161.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  28.8  28.7  34.8  41.3  40.8  37.9  40.5  N  N  N  F VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%