Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142025 250804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30    160.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.9  31.5  35.3  31.9  33.0  28.0  28.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  15.0  15.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.7 139.6 132.9 132.9 124.4  96.5  81.7  81.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  10.0   1.0 -16.0 -27.0   7.0 -11.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 WP142025 250804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30    160.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.9  31.5  35.3  31.9  33.0  28.0  28.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%