Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142025 250805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    158.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        144.6 137.9 137.9 137.9 137.9 137.9 137.9 137.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.6%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 WP142025 250805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    158.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%