Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152025 250806 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 157.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 28.8 25.3 23.0 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 9.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 121.5 113.5 97.7 90.0 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.7 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 -15.0 -11.0 -24.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 VU U U VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 57.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -10.0 -9.0 0.0 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0 F F F N F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.96 WP152025 250806 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 157.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.