Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152025 250806 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.60 157.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.2 24.2 19.1 15.6 10.8 16.5 16.5 16.5 U N N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 113.5 97.7 83.0 75.5 32.3 20.5 20.5 20.5 N N N U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 -5.0 -43.0 28.0 27.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 U U VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 53.0 52.0 58.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -16.0 -4.0 0.0 17.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 F VF F N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 4.5% 0.0% 2.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 WP152025 250806 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.60 157.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.