Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152025 250806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00    156.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  24.1  21.7  20.2  12.5  12.5  12.5  12.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.7  83.0  66.7  58.3  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -27.0  17.0  -4.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0  -8.0  -3.0  -3.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0 VF  F  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.04

 WP152025 250806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00    156.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.