Rapid Intensification Guidance WP152025 250807 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 157.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.3 10.7 12.2 15.4 16.5 22.4 19.4 22.7 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.6 37.3 33.4 31.2 29.1 31.5 37.6 47.7 U U VU VU VU VU U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 18.0 18.0 7.0 -24.0 -57.0 -47.0 -22.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 55.0 57.0 59.0 54.0 55.0 50.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 19.0 16.0 25.0 23.0 16.0 0.0 -5.0 N VU U VU VU U N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 17.62 WP152025 250807 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 157.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.