Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  16.1  14.4  21.9  20.6  24.3  24.3  26.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 107.0 103.0 104.0  94.0  84.0  75.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  52.0  13.0 -18.0   7.0 -27.0  -5.0 -16.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0 -13.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        6.3%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       45.5%       32.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.5%       25.0%       17.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       22.3%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       20.4%       11.5%
 45kt / 36h       19.4%       59.4%       39.4%
 55kt / 36h       17.4%       37.9%       27.6%
 55kt / 48h       49.0%       34.4%       41.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.5%       32.5%       29.0%
 65kt / 72h       48.7%       54.7%       51.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP162025 250807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  16.1  14.4  21.9  20.6  24.3  24.3  26.1  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0 -13.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%