Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.6  21.4  25.3  21.6  27.0  28.3  34.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  93.0  90.0  91.0  87.0  82.0  71.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  12.0 -15.0 -18.0  -5.0 -13.0  -3.0  12.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -5.0  -2.0  -8.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        8.3%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       20.4%       41.5%       30.9%
 30kt / 24h       13.0%       22.8%       17.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.4%       21.2%       14.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       20.1%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h       18.0%       53.3%       35.7%
 55kt / 36h       16.2%       33.5%       24.8%
 55kt / 48h       41.5%       25.7%       33.6%
 70kt / 48h       23.7%       23.3%       23.5%
 65kt / 72h       27.5%       39.0%       33.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP162025 250807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.6  21.4  25.3  21.6  27.0  28.3  34.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -5.0  -2.0  -8.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%