Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250807 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 147.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 20.2 25.3 21.3 23.9 27.1 28.6 35.4 F N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 95.0 90.0 91.0 94.0 84.0 75.0 67.0 88.0 F F F F N N N F Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 -16.0 -18.0 -9.0 -19.0 -18.0 -14.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 68.0 69.0 69.0 67.0 69.0 67.0 69.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -7.0 -2.0 -12.0 -2.0 N N N N F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.2% 6.7% 5.5% 25kt / 24h 15.0% 34.4% 24.7% 30kt / 24h 9.6% 18.5% 14.0% 35kt / 24h 4.0% 16.6% 10.3% 40kt / 24h 2.3% 15.7% 9.0% 45kt / 36h 15.3% 38.5% 26.9% 55kt / 36h 12.2% 19.1% 15.6% 55kt / 48h 27.6% 18.2% 22.9% 70kt / 48h 13.4% 11.9% 12.7% 65kt / 72h 18.7% 23.2% 21.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 WP162025 250807 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 147.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 20.2 25.3 21.3 23.9 27.1 28.6 35.4 U N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 68.0 69.0 69.0 67.0 69.0 67.0 69.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -7.0 -2.0 -12.0 -2.0 N N N N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%