Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    146.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  21.8  20.4  22.2  26.6  29.8  44.1  40.6  N  N  N  N  N  N VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  93.0  87.0  86.0  73.0  64.0  68.0  78.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  -2.0 -22.0 -18.0  -8.0 -23.0  26.0  20.0 VU  U VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0 -14.0  -9.0  -8.0  F  N  N  F  N VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        5.4%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       29.9%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       15.2%       11.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       13.3%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       13.0%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%       28.9%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        7.6%       12.4%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h       22.4%       12.7%       17.6%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%        7.9%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%       13.2%       13.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 WP162025 250807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    146.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  21.8  20.4  22.2  26.6  29.8  44.1  40.6  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0 -14.0  -9.0  -8.0  U  N  N  U  N VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%