Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  20.2  21.8  28.7  25.0  36.7  44.2  43.1  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  66.0  61.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -22.0 -17.0 -15.0 -24.0  12.0  16.0  59.0  U VU  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -7.0  -6.0 -15.0  -9.0 -11.0  N  N  F  F  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%       10.4%       10.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.5%       34.0%       25.7%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%       18.4%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.0%       18.4%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        8.0%       18.4%       13.2%
 45kt / 36h       13.8%       28.8%       21.3%
 55kt / 36h       10.4%       11.9%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.0%        9.8%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        5.3%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.4%        7.2%        5.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP162025 250808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  20.2  21.8  28.7  25.0  36.7  44.2  43.1  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -7.0  -6.0 -15.0  -9.0 -11.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%