Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250808 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.60 145.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 24.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 21.3 28.4 26.5 29.5 44.7 45.7 46.6 N N N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 80.0 71.0 66.0 66.0 63.0 59.0 60.0 58.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -22.0 -17.0 -15.0 -7.0 -23.0 25.0 20.0 71.0 VU U U U VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 60.0 58.0 62.0 62.0 64.0 65.0 62.0 N N U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 -7.0 -2.0 -14.0 -10.0 -10.0 -9.0 N F F N VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.6% 4.8% 4.2% 25kt / 24h 7.3% 20.0% 13.7% 30kt / 24h 5.4% 9.1% 7.2% 35kt / 24h 2.7% 8.0% 5.3% 40kt / 24h 1.4% 8.0% 4.7% 45kt / 36h 6.1% 16.9% 11.5% 55kt / 36h 4.1% 5.7% 4.9% 55kt / 48h 7.6% 5.0% 6.3% 70kt / 48h 1.9% 2.4% 2.1% 65kt / 72h 2.8% 4.1% 3.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 WP162025 250808 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.60 145.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 21.3 28.4 26.5 29.5 44.7 45.7 46.6 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 60.0 58.0 62.0 62.0 64.0 65.0 62.0 N N F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 -7.0 -2.0 -14.0 -10.0 -10.0 -9.0 N U U N VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%