Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250808 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 144.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 65.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 27.6 26.3 23.4 35.8 46.1 49.9 41.1 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 77.0 66.0 67.0 64.0 59.0 60.0 58.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -17.0 -15.0 -7.0 -24.0 13.0 16.0 59.0 93.0 U U U VU U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 60.0 62.0 61.0 61.0 N U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -8.0 -2.0 -5.0 -16.0 -8.0 -15.0 -14.0 F F N F VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.0% 8.0% 7.0% 25kt / 24h 14.3% 32.9% 23.6% 30kt / 24h 9.2% 20.7% 15.0% 35kt / 24h 6.7% 20.4% 13.6% 40kt / 24h 2.2% 17.6% 9.9% 45kt / 36h 7.0% 22.7% 14.8% 55kt / 36h 4.0% 9.3% 6.7% 55kt / 48h 3.4% 6.0% 4.7% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 2.6% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 1.9% 4.5% 3.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 WP162025 250808 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 144.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 27.6 26.3 23.4 35.8 46.1 49.9 41.1 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 60.0 62.0 61.0 61.0 N F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -8.0 -2.0 -5.0 -16.0 -8.0 -15.0 -14.0 U U N U VU U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%