Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250808 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 143.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.2 23.5 27.4 34.0 44.1 57.0 66.8 61.9 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 62.0 63.0 59.0 55.0 58.0 60.0 50.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 6.0 -4.0 -6.0 12.0 -5.0 -1.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 61.0 59.0 59.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 U N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -3.0 -4.0 -10.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -17.0 F N F F VF F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.7% 7.1% 6.4% 25kt / 24h 11.2% 25.9% 18.6% 30kt / 24h 7.0% 14.5% 10.8% 35kt / 24h 4.1% 14.1% 9.1% 40kt / 24h 2.1% 12.4% 7.3% 45kt / 36h 3.9% 12.8% 8.3% 55kt / 36h 1.8% 4.1% 2.9% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 2.5% 1.7% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.40 WP162025 250808 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 143.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.2 23.5 27.4 34.0 44.1 57.0 66.8 61.9 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 61.0 59.0 59.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 F N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -3.0 -4.0 -10.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -17.0 U N U U VU U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%