Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250809 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 57.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 25.9 33.8 39.0 45.1 63.0 63.2 64.4 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 63.0 59.0 56.0 55.0 56.0 55.0 48.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 -4.0 -4.0 3.0 6.0 -16.0 -2.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 61.0 60.0 60.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -9.0 -12.0 -17.0 -10.0 -14.0 -11.0 -19.0 F F F VF F VF F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.5% 7.3% 7.4% 25kt / 24h 9.9% 21.6% 15.7% 30kt / 24h 6.3% 11.5% 8.9% 35kt / 24h 3.9% 11.4% 7.6% 40kt / 24h 2.6% 9.8% 6.2% 45kt / 36h 3.2% 8.9% 6.0% 55kt / 36h 1.1% 2.4% 1.8% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.38 WP162025 250809 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 25.9 33.8 39.0 45.1 63.0 63.2 64.4 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 61.0 60.0 60.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -9.0 -12.0 -17.0 -10.0 -14.0 -11.0 -19.0 U U U VU U VU U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%