Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250809 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 45.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 32.2 35.2 38.3 42.2 53.6 52.3 53.4 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 61.0 59.0 65.0 65.0 59.0 70.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -16.0 22.0 -10.0 7.0 6.0 -13.0 14.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 63.0 64.0 67.0 63.0 69.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -11.0 -18.0 -11.0 -10.0 -8.0 -11.0 -12.0 F F VF F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.8% 3.9% 4.4% 25kt / 24h 6.3% 14.0% 10.1% 30kt / 24h 4.1% 6.7% 5.4% 35kt / 24h 3.2% 6.4% 4.8% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 5.4% 3.3% 45kt / 36h 2.2% 6.3% 4.3% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 1.6% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.46 WP162025 250809 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 32.2 35.2 38.3 42.2 53.6 52.3 53.4 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 63.0 64.0 67.0 63.0 69.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -11.0 -18.0 -11.0 -10.0 -8.0 -11.0 -12.0 U U VU U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%