Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250809 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 141.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 68.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 33.8 38.0 39.3 48.3 51.4 55.6 54.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 59.0 65.0 66.0 62.0 69.0 67.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 -10.0 7.0 14.0 1.0 23.0 8.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 62.0 64.0 64.0 66.0 64.0 66.0 N U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -17.0 -11.0 -5.0 -10.0 -11.0 -9.0 -13.0 F VF F F F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% 25kt / 24h 4.9% 12.3% 8.6% 30kt / 24h 2.3% 6.1% 4.2% 35kt / 24h 1.9% 5.8% 3.9% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 4.2% 2.4% 45kt / 36h 1.0% 4.5% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 WP162025 250809 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 141.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 33.8 38.0 39.3 48.3 51.4 55.6 54.7 N F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 62.0 64.0 64.0 66.0 64.0 66.0 N F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -17.0 -11.0 -5.0 -10.0 -11.0 -9.0 -13.0 U VU U U U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%