Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250809 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 140.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.5 42.6 42.1 46.5 55.4 45.5 50.1 49.9 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 64.0 66.0 65.0 59.0 69.0 62.0 67.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 -19.0 -47.0 -26.0 16.0 7.0 11.0 28.0 U U VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 58.0 60.0 60.0 58.0 61.0 61.0 60.0 U U N N U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -17.0 -10.0 -11.0 -11.0 -10.0 -10.0 -8.0 VF VF F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.2% 3.4% 4.3% 25kt / 24h 4.4% 9.6% 7.0% 30kt / 24h 2.7% 4.6% 3.6% 35kt / 24h 2.7% 4.5% 3.6% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 3.2% 2.0% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 2.5% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 WP162025 250809 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 140.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.5 42.6 42.1 46.5 55.4 45.5 50.1 49.9 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 58.0 60.0 60.0 58.0 61.0 61.0 60.0 F F N N F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -17.0 -10.0 -11.0 -11.0 -10.0 -10.0 -8.0 VU VU U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3%