Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250810 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 138.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.6 41.5 43.8 50.5 51.2 46.6 50.2 48.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 65.0 66.0 64.0 60.0 67.0 65.0 64.0 83.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -47.0 -26.0 -12.0 -5.0 26.0 3.0 14.0 U VU VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 60.0 58.0 57.0 59.0 60.0 62.0 61.0 U N U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -9.0 -11.0 -8.0 -8.0 -10.0 -8.0 -10.0 VF F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 1.2% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 3.7% 2.3% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 1.3% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.50 WP162025 250810 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 138.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.6 41.5 43.8 50.5 51.2 46.6 50.2 48.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 60.0 58.0 57.0 59.0 60.0 62.0 61.0 F N F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -9.0 -11.0 -8.0 -8.0 -10.0 -8.0 -10.0 VU U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%