Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  43.6  48.0  45.3  39.3  47.0  44.8  46.4  U VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  64.0  60.0  58.0  70.0  62.0  67.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -35.0 -21.0 -15.0   8.0   3.0   5.0   2.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -13.0 -16.0  -8.0 -10.0 -11.0  -8.0 -10.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP162025 250810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  43.6  48.0  45.3  39.3  47.0  44.8  46.4  F VF VF VF  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -13.0 -16.0  -8.0 -10.0 -11.0  -8.0 -10.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%