Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    134.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.4  43.4  39.6  40.4  44.0  43.9  50.8  35.2 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  63.0  70.0  69.0  63.0  75.0  63.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  96.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  -4.0  13.0  14.0   7.0   6.0   2.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -11.0 -12.0 -12.0  -8.0  -6.0 -21.0 -12.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP162025 250810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    134.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.4  43.4  39.6  40.4  44.0  43.9  50.8  35.2 VF VF  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  55.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -11.0 -12.0 -12.0  -8.0  -6.0 -21.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%