Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250811 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 133.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.4 39.6 38.0 38.4 44.0 46.2 42.2 38.9 VU U U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 70.0 68.0 64.0 68.0 79.0 38.0 14.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 97.9 91.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 13.0 14.0 17.0 11.0 2.0 26.0 57.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 55.0 57.0 57.0 59.0 57.0 60.0 61.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0 -14.0 -10.0 -7.0 -11.0 -15.0 -17.0 F F VF F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.1% 1.6% 2.3% 25kt / 24h 3.5% 7.1% 5.3% 30kt / 24h 2.3% 2.8% 2.5% 35kt / 24h 1.3% 2.6% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 1.3% 2.1% 1.7% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 2.4% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 WP162025 250811 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 133.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.4 39.6 38.0 38.4 44.0 46.2 42.2 38.9 VF F F F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 55.0 57.0 57.0 59.0 57.0 60.0 61.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0 -14.0 -10.0 -7.0 -11.0 -15.0 -17.0 U U VU U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%