Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162025 250811 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 132.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 51.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.10 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.1 35.4 37.8 42.2 44.4 42.8 43.3 35.4 VU U U VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 72.0 70.0 66.0 64.0 81.0 68.0 22.0 7.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 97.9 85.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 43.0 28.0 5.0 7.0 21.0 26.0 30.0 U N U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 62.0 60.0 59.0 64.0 67.0 68.0 71.0 N N N U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -9.0 -13.0 -8.0 -3.0 -10.0 -17.0 -10.0 F F VF F N F VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.0% 2.3% 3.2% 25kt / 24h 5.5% 9.9% 7.7% 30kt / 24h 3.2% 4.2% 3.7% 35kt / 24h 2.2% 4.1% 3.1% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 3.1% 2.2% 45kt / 36h 1.1% 3.6% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.36 WP162025 250811 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 132.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.1 35.4 37.8 42.2 44.4 42.8 43.3 35.4 VF F F VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 62.0 60.0 59.0 64.0 67.0 68.0 71.0 N N N F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -9.0 -13.0 -8.0 -3.0 -10.0 -17.0 -10.0 U U VU U N U VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3%