Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162025 250811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  36.2  38.6  41.0  44.1  35.1  23.6  20.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  65.0  73.0  84.0  61.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  92.3  75.5  73.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   4.0  -4.0  21.0  18.0  42.0  40.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  64.0  66.0  73.0  77.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0 -11.0 -21.0 -10.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.3%        9.8%       13.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.3%       25.0%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       17.0%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.3%       17.0%       16.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%       14.2%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%        7.5%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        2.0%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP162025 250811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  36.2  38.6  41.0  44.1  35.1  23.6  20.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  64.0  66.0  73.0  77.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0 -11.0 -21.0 -10.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%